Analyzing Setup Performance

Using Your Data to Find Your Real Edge

After 30–50 tagged trades per setup, you have enough data to start asking meaningful questions. This is where Tradapt's analytics pay off.

The Setup Performance Analysis

In Analytics, filter by setup tag. For each setup, you'll see:

• Win rate — How often this setup produces a winning trade
• Profit factor — The quality of wins vs. losses on this setup
• Average R — The average outcome in risk units
• Best and worst trades — The tails of your distribution
• Performance over time — Is this setup getting better or worse?

The Four Questions to Ask About Each Setup

1. Does it have positive expectancy?

Is average R > 0 and profit factor > 1.0? If not, this setup is losing money.

2. Is the sample size sufficient?

Less than 20 trades is too small for conclusions. 20–50 is directional. 50+ is meaningful.

3. Is performance consistent over time?

Does the setup work in this market condition but fail in others? Filter by date range to see if recent performance differs from historical.

4. Are there specific conditions where it works better?

Filter further by instrument, time of day, or day of week. You might find that your ORB setup works well on high-volatility days but fails on low-volatility ones.

What to Do With the Results

High-performing setups (PF > 1.5, positive average R):

• Consider increasing position size slightly on these
• Study the winning trades to identify the ideal conditions
• Document additional confirmation criteria that further improve performance

Marginal setups (PF 1.0–1.5):

• Don't abandon yet — monitor over more trades
• Look for market conditions that improve performance
• Consider stricter entry criteria to filter out the losing trades

Negative expectancy setups (PF < 1.0):

• Stop trading this setup immediately
• Study the losing trades — what condition is causing them to fail?
• Either fix the criteria and restart, or permanently retire this setup

Scheduling Your Review

Build a monthly calendar event: "Playbook Review." In this session, run setup performance analysis for every active setup and make explicit decisions about each one. Document your conclusions in the playbook.