Win Rate — What It Really Means

Win Rate Defined

Win rate is the percentage of your closed trades that ended in a profit.

Formula: Win Rate = (Winning Trades ÷ Total Trades) × 100

Example: 42 winning trades out of 70 total = 60% win rate.

The Trap: High Win Rate ≠ Profitable

This is the most common misconception in trading. A high win rate sounds good, but it can mask a deeply unprofitable system.

Example — Unprofitable despite 70% win rate:

• 7 winning trades × $100 average win = $700 gross profit
• 3 losing trades × $500 average loss = $1,500 gross loss
• Net result: -$800 despite 70% win rate

Example — Profitable at 35% win rate:

• 35 winning trades × $600 average win = $21,000 gross profit
• 65 losing trades × $150 average loss = $9,750 gross loss
• Net result: +$11,250 despite only 35% win rate

The key insight: win rate only has meaning in the context of your average win/loss ratio.

The Mathematical Minimum Win Rate

For any risk/reward ratio, there's a minimum win rate required to be profitable. Here's a quick reference:

• 1:1 risk/reward → Need >50% win rate to profit
• 1:2 risk/reward → Need >33% win rate to profit
• 1:3 risk/reward → Need >25% win rate to profit
• 1:5 risk/reward → Need >17% win rate to profit

This is why trend-following systems with 30–40% win rates can be massively profitable — they have large average wins.

What's a "Good" Win Rate?

There's no universal answer. It depends entirely on your system's risk/reward. But here are common benchmarks:

• Scalpers: Often 60–75% win rate with 1:1 or slightly below risk/reward
• Day traders: Often 45–60% win rate with 1:1.5 to 1:2
• Swing traders: Often 35–55% win rate with 1:2 to 1:4
• Trend followers: Often 25–40% win rate with 1:3 to 1:10

Checking Your Win Rate in Tradapt

Your win rate is shown on the Dashboard stats cards and in the Analytics section. Tradapt also breaks down win rate by:

• Setup type (which setups have the best win rate?)
• Time of day (when are you winning most?)
• Day of week (is Monday different from Friday?)
• Instrument (do you win more on NQ than ES?)

Use these breakdowns to find where your edge is strongest — and where you should stop trading.